Connections

This article examines the shift in international security from traditional threat-centric models to risk-based approaches, focusing on the role of emerging technologies in shaping perceptions and responses. While offering significant benefits, emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing have also created new vulnerabilities, particularly when weaponized. Traditional state-centric security frameworks are inadequate in addressing these risks, especially as non-state actors gain access to these powerful technologies. The article categorizes global risks into catastrophic and existential types, exploring how their management demands a shift in risk analysis methods and proactive strategies. It advocates for a multi-stakeholder approach and global cooperation to enhance resilience, with a particular focus on NATO's adaptive strategies for combatting cyber, cognitive, and hybrid threats.

The good governance of military and security forces is essential for the effective defense of a nation or alliance and for fostering their democratic evolution. This article explores NATO and partner countries’ initiatives over the past three decades to enhance good governance, distinguishing five waves of focus: civil-military relations and democratic control of armed forces, defense institution building, security sector reform, building integrity and reducing corruption, and strengthening democratic resilience. The authors review the research and educational activities of the Partnership for Peace Consortium and other organizations in support of these initiatives, concluding with a proposal to establish a working group on democratic resilience within the Consortium.

The rapid evolution of warfare in the modern multi-domain battlespace necessitates a corresponding transformation in military training and education. The 21st-century battlefield is increasingly complex, with technology and the operational environment changing at an unprecedented pace across all domains--land, air, sea, cyber, and space--while major opponents of Western alliances continue to strengthen and coordinate their economic and military power to challenge the international order. The ongoing Russian war in Ukraine starkly illustrates the dynamic challenges of the modern battlespace and underscores the need for military instruction systems that are both resilient and adaptable. This article explores the "train while we fight" concept as a paradigm for addressing the challenges and opportunities in military education and training, emphasizing that learning must be continuous, adaptive, and integrated into operational activities. We analyze the growing role of Advanced Distributed Learning in education and training, highlight the need for multinational cooperation to build and sustain training resilience, and examine innovative instructional approaches inspired by fields such as lean manufacturing, mass customization, personalized learning, and on-demand content production.

It has often been argued that the European Union lacks a common long-term strategy for the South Caucasus and instead follows an ad-hoc, reactive approach to regional developments. While other geopolitical players such as Türkiye, Russia, and Iran remain dominant in the region, the European Union has limited options for engagement that align with its interests. Much will depend on how, when, and if the war against Ukraine ends, yet the European Union should already pursue a credible, realistic, and honest approach toward the three South Caucasus states. Avoiding black-and-white thinking about these countries--viewing them as either pro- or anti-Russia--is essential for the European Union, as is a clear understanding of what the European Union can realistically deliver. By applying a "do no harm" approach and focusing on mutually beneficial opportunities, such as supporting the diversification of foreign and economic policies, investing in regional infrastructure and trade projects, or aiding conflict resolution, the European Union can make a meaningful contribution to the region that also aligns with its own interests.

The Partnership for Peace Consortium’s Regional Stability in South East Europe Working Group aims to foster transformation in Southeast European societies and their defense and security establishments through academic research, education, training, and intensive cooperation and networking in the region and beyond. The positive practical effects over its 25 years of existence include the development of a new culture of addressing security issues in young democratic societies, evidenced by numerous academic publications, policy recommendations, and the membership of most Balkan countries in NATO and the European Union. New tasks lie ahead, and the Working Group remains committed to its mission, working closely with the Senior Advisory Council, the PfP Consortium Secretariat, and the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.

Reflecting on the 25th anniversary of the Partnership for Peace Consortium, this editorial examines its pivotal role in fostering peace, security, and cooperation across Europe and beyond. Established in a tumultuous post-Soviet landscape, the Consortium has navigated complex geopolitical shifts while advocating for collaborative approaches to conflict resolution, progressive visions for Europe and NATO, and the achievement of sustainable peace. By reviewing articles in this issue of Connections and the Consortium’s contributions to regional stability, democratic reform, and educational development, this article showcases the transformative impact of various working and study groups. Topics range from defense cooperation in South East Europe to the evolution of military education in response to contemporary security challenges like hybrid warfare and disinformation. The article emphasizes the ongoing need for innovative governance and adaptive methodologies to address emerging threats, as well as the importance of historical understanding in shaping modern security strategies. Ultimately, this reflection underscores the Consortium’s enduring commitment to enhancing global security cooperation and the vital role it plays in promoting democratic values amidst evolving security challenges.

Twenty-five years after its creation, the Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes continues to serve its stakeholders by adapting to new challenges and providing timely policy recommendations and relevant education and training solutions. This article briefly summarizes the origins of the Consortium, its working modalities, and future opportunities.

The world is witnessing a fundamental change in the international system. The international politics will likely evolve into a competition of systems in a multipolar world. This shift has significantly influenced how African countries interact with the rest of the world. African states have entered an era of choice. The narrative of Africa being the "Dark Continent" is transforming into one of a "rising continent," with interactions increasingly involving a growing number of "non-traditional actors." Some African governments have increasingly embraced economic, diplomatic, and security ties with Russia. Africa’s abundance of strategic resources, favorable demographics, and attractive growth prospects give its leaders leverage in global affairs.
Africa's relationship with the West has been complex, producing both positive and negative impacts. Neither capitalist-oriented nor socialist African governments have been able to transform the continent. A general sense of disappointment and frustration prevails among Africans toward Western powers, stemming from unfulfilled promises that democracy would lead to development and economic growth. Building trust and credibility will require greater European transparency regarding their interests, minimizing policy incoherencies, and addressing the gaps between European offerings and African needs.

The European Union perceives the world as multipolar, with countries of the Global South expanding their political and economic influence alongside the rivalry between the United States and China. Cooperation, compromise, and multilateral engagement are central to the EU's mode of operation, and the European Union and its member states favor this approach in shaping international relations. However, in a security environment characterized by strategic competition, the European Union, as the world's largest trading bloc, must assert its role. "Strategic interdependence" appears to be the EU's response to addressing the complexities of a changing world.

This article analyzes India's stake and role in the context of the renewed confrontational relationship between Washington and Beijing. The examination of India’s strategic vision, along with the changing dynamics of its bilateral ties with the United States, China, and Russia, demonstrates that New Delhi's foreign policy toward Washington has been shaped by events in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, as well as by the dynamics of America's evolving relationships with key Asian powers. India has assumed a prominent role in the United States’ efforts to enforce a rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific. Both nations have leveraged shared values to deepen their engagement, also driven by pragmatic considerations. At the same time, maintaining close relations with the United States has become a strategic necessity for India. The partnership between India and the United States has been reinforced by their increasingly adversarial relationships with China. India has shown a noticeable shift in its approach to the U.S.-China strategic rivalry, driven by New Delhi’s changing threat perception of China – from a partner to a security threat.

Strategic competition and the concept of being in a struggle currently shape the mindsets and the construction of the social reality of policymakers, academics, and the public. This article analyzes how U.S. policymakers and analysts, the Russian leadership, and the Chinese Communist Party perceive the current security situation. It also explores the often-underestimated role of strategic narratives. By summarizing the key points of the strategic narratives of the United States, Russia, and China, the article discusses the implications of the competitive mindset on humanity’s ability to address essential global security challenges

This article explores the geopolitical and geostrategic importance of the Black Sea region within the complex dynamics of major-power competition, focusing primarily on the interests and strategies of the United States, China, Russia, and other regional players. It highlights the region’s major threats and challenges, ranging from military threats and hybrid operations to socio-economic and ecological concerns. These multifaceted challenges are leveraged by key stakeholders to advance their interests, further complicating the strategic landscape. This complex geopolitical environment, fraught with risks and competition, underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of the dynamics at play. The article introduces the concept of strategic trilemmas in the Black Sea region, involving the active participation of Türkiye, Ukraine, and pro-Western littoral states (Romania, Bulgaria, and Georgia) on one side, with Russia on the opposing side. Addressing the region’s challenges requires a comprehensive approach to promote stability, security, and cooperation. While Russia’s influence remains a concern, the potential for reducing its dominance and increasing cooperation in the Black Sea region offers bilateral and multilateral collaboration opportunities in this crucial geopolitical theater.

Strategic competition has significantly reframed American strategic thought, particularly its national security and military strategies, by defining the threats to American primacy and the rules-based international order posed mainly by China and Russia. However, the term "strategic competition" is not universally understood within the U.S. government, leading to varying perspectives on how to proceed. Additionally, it does not adequately address how competitors approach international competition, creating a risk of miscalculation and an increased chance of conflict. Finally, for the United States, strategic competition establishes a framework that perpetuates challenges for American strategy and the use of elements of national power. While "strategic competition" is necessary to focus and drive American strategy and strategic calculus, it is also a vague and imperfect construct that could lead decision-makers down consequential paths.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees the growing role and influence of the People's Republic of China as a return to the natural state of affairs. Building on ancient concepts like Tian Xia and driven by historically shaped preferences for control and dominance, the CCP proposes a "community of shared future for mankind" as an alternative to the Western-shaped rules-based order - a China-centric, hierarchical world order with Beijing at its core, engaging with subordinate states to the "benefit of all." This article introduces Beijing's perception of strategic competition, its main interests and drivers, and the avenues it pursues to promote its alternative world order.

The Indo-Pacific is one of the most consequential regions in the world. Its demographic and economic trends make it a pivotal engine for global economic growth. At the same time, various ethnic, territorial, and maritime disputes in the region threaten to destabilize not only individual states and the region but also the international system. Against this backdrop, the Sino-American strategic competition adds another layer of complexity to regional dynamics, bringing with it several opportunities but also significant challenges. Consequently, how this competition evolves will have global repercussions. This study explores the role of the Indo-Pacific in the broader Sino-American strategic competition and assesses the perceptions and interests of key regional actors. The author argues that these actors are exercising their agency in ways that constrain or co-opt the Sino-American strategic competition to further their interests. Conclusions are made that this challenges the emergent Cold War 2.0 discourse, which envisions Washington and Beijing forming two coherent blocks vying for influence, by revealing the region’s complex realities.

Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States, along with an international coalition of over 40 allies and partners (including the European Union and G7), imposed sanctions designed to restrict Russia’s access to capital, technologies, and other resources necessary to wage an aggressive war. Despite Georgia’s historical alignment with EU sanctions following Russia’s 2014 actions, the Georgian government opted not to officially join the coalition in 2022, citing economic concerns and fears of potential Russian aggression. However, Georgia’s strategic location and transportation infrastructure have made it a focal point for Russia’s attempts to evade sanctions, creating significant security risks given Georgia’s history of conflict with Russia. This study explores the challenges and threats facing Georgia in the aftermath of the sanctions, focusing on the complexities of balancing its international obligations with its security concerns. The analysis of Georgia’s foreign trade data reveals a surge in trade volumes involving specific products and countries, indicating efforts by Russia to circumvent sanctions. The research methodology integrates academic studies and original statistical analysis to underscore the urgency for Georgia to strengthen its cooperation with coalition members and improve its compliance with sanctions policies. The study concludes by proposing measures for Georgia to mitigate these threats, including developing a comprehensive trade control policy and enhancing administrative capacities to support coalition efforts in weakening Russia’s military capabilities.

Utilizing the British Broadcasting Corporation Monitoring (BBCM) service to track and analyze the use of the term “Anglo-Saxons” by Russian officials, media representatives, state policy documents, as well as wider advocates of Russia’s narrative, this article surveys how Putin’s regime references it. The term’s meanings are open-ended, dynamic, and evolving, and its applications tend to be context-sensitive. “Anglo-Saxons” functions as an epithet, trope, synonym, metaphor, and analogy in contemporary Russian discourse during Putin’s fifth term. It represents a “collective West” perceived as intent on destabilizing Russia. The supposed threat of “Anglo-Saxons” is used to justify political choices, legitimize internal order, characterize Russia’s alternative geopolitical identity, and outline its vision of a preferred global order. Following a genealogy of the term, tracing its evolving meanings through the medieval, early modern, and modern periods, the article identifies three core ways in which official discourse deploys the “Anglo-Saxon” concept: 1) “Anglo-Saxon Atlanticists” and the “collective West”; 2) the “Anglo-Saxon Reich” – portraying the “fascist Anglo-Saxons elite” and “Ordinary Nazis”; and 3) “Anglo-Saxons” as “Fifth Column” and “Foreign Agent.” Finally, the article concludes by exploring the trajectory of “Anglo-Saxon” usage and reflecting on its efficacy in legitimizing current Russian policies and strategies.

Technology and innovation have significantly influenced the Russo-Ukrainian war, impacting not only the armed conflict but also the reconstruction of reclaimed territories and the restoration of services. Few believed in Ukraine’s survival when the Russian invasion began in February 2022. This article examines how Ukraine, through its ability to embrace technological advancements and apply innovative solutions, gained a comparatively advantageous position against Russian aggression. We focus on the fundamental differences in the early stages of the war, particularly highlighting Ukraine’s adept integration of emerging dual-use and advanced Western products and technologies.

The Black Sea, historically a crossroads of empires and modern nations, has become a critical focal point in 21st-century geopolitics. This article examines its multifaceted importance, from strategic maritime linkages and energy reserves to its evolving role as a theater for great power competition. By analyzing the interests and actions of key players such as Russia, Türkiye, and NATO, we highlight the region's dual significance as both a hub of cooperation and a potential flashpoint for conflict. Drawing on historical context, current geopolitical developments, and strategic analyses, the article underscores the Black Sea’s broader implications for global peace, trade, and stability in an era of renewed global power dynamics.